Our year-end S&P 500 Index fair value target range remains 4,050–4,100, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of 21 and our 2022 S&P 500 earnings forecast of $195 per share. Recall that we raised our S&P 500 fair value target last month due to our increasingly optimistic expectations for US economic growth and fiscal and monetary stimulus prospects, and the potential for a strong rebound in corporate profits. The ramping up of COVID-19 vaccine distribution and dramatic reduction in cases and hospitalizations underpins our optimistic economic growth forecast—we expect US gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 5–5.5% in 2021. Our S&P 500 earnings per share forecast in 2021 of $170—also increased last month—may prove overly conservative after such a strong fourth quarter earnings season. Our year-end 10-year Treasury yield forecast range remains 1.25–1.75%.
KEY CHANGES FROM FEBRUARY’S REPORT:
- Upgraded financials view to positive from neutral.
INVESTMENT TAKEAWAYS
- Our equities recommendation remains overweight. We continue to favor stocks over bonds based on our expectation for a strong economic and earnings recovery in 2021, supported by prospects for additional fiscal stimulus, and continued progress in combatting COVID-19.
- We have upgraded our view of the financials sector to positive. The sector is a beneficiary of higher interest rates and steepening yield curve, while valuations are attractive.
- As the economic recovery progresses in 2021, we would expect cyclical value stocks to get a boost, consistent with our financials upgrade this month and energy upgrades earlier this year.
- Key near-term risks include further sharp increases in interest rates, possible COVID-19 variant viruses, potential tax increases (unlikely until 2022), and tougher regulations under a Democratic-controlled Congress.
- We expect solid economic growth across Asia to support strong performance by stocks in emerging markets (EM). EM may garner additional support from potential easing of US-China trade tensions, although ongoing geopolitical and regulatory threats may lead to bouts of volatility.
- We continue to recommend remaining underweight fixed income. Although we’ve seen a big move higher in rates, Federal Reserve (Fed) policy and manageable inflation may limit the risk of a large rate move in the near term. Further rising rates may still put some pressure on bond returns while economic improvement may help support equities going out a full year.
- We favor a blend of high-quality intermediate bonds that is underweight US Treasuries with an emphasis on short-tointermediate maturities and sector weightings tilted toward mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors and they do not take into account the particular needs, investment objectives, tax and financial condition of any specific person. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.
Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Because of their narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Value investments can perform differently from the market as a whole and can remain undervalued by the market for long periods of time. The prices of small and mid-cap stocks are generally more volatile than large cap stocks. Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity.
Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price. Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds. Municipal bonds are subject to availability and change in price. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Municipal bonds are federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. If sold prior to maturity, capital gains tax could apply. U.S. Treasuries may be considered “safe haven” investments but do carry some degree of risk including interest rate, credit, and market risk. Bond yields are subject to change. Certain call or special redemption features may exist which could impact yield. Mortgage backed securities are subject to credit, default, prepayment, extension, market and interest rate risk.
Credit Quality is one of the principal criteria for judging the investment quality of a bond or bond mutual fund. Credit ratings are published rankings based on detailed financial analyses by a credit bureau specifically as it relates the bond issue’s ability to meet debt obligations. The highest rating is AAA, and the lowest is D. Securities with credit ratings of BBB and above are considered investment grade. Duration is a measure of the sensitivity of the price (the value of principal) of a fixed-income investment to a change in interest rates. It is expressed as a number of years.
Alternative investments may not be suitable for all investors and should be considered as an investment for the risk capital portion of the investor’s portfolio. The strategies employed in the management of alternative investments may accelerate the velocity of potential losses.
Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, geopolitical events, and regulatory developments. The fast price swings in commodities and currencies will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings.
Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.
Earnings per share (EPS) is the portion of a company’s profit allocated to each outstanding share of common stock. EPS serves as an indicator of a company’s profitability. Earnings per share is generally considered to be the single most important variable in determining a share’s price. It is also a major component used to calculate the price-to-earnings valuation ratio.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period, though GDP is usually calculated on an annual basis. It includes all of private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports less imports that occur within a defined territory.
All index data from FactSet.
For a list of descriptions of the indexes referenced in this publication, please visit our website at lplresearch.com/definitions.
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